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20/01/2011
Migration To Hit 50,000 This Year
Ireland's level of migration is expected to reach 50,000 this year, according to new figures published by a Government research institute.
The figures from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ERSI) represent a higher outflow than the high levels experienced during the late 1980s, and are based on estimate of continued low employment until 2013.
The ESRI said the highest rate of net outflow in the 1980s occurred in 1989 when the rate reached 44,000.
"Hence, our forecast for an average annual net outflow of 50,000 is high in historic terms, albeit against a larger population base."
Among their other forecasts the ESRI said GDP would grow by 1.5% in real terms in 2011 and by 2.25% in 2012, but these improvements would not be felt in the job market.
Meanwhile, exports are forecast to grow by 6% in 2011 and by 5% in 2012.
Consumption of goods and services is expected to fall by three quarters in 2011 and by a further half a percent in 2012.
According to the ERSI findings, on-going uncertainty with respect to job stability, wages and taxation are likely to act against any rebound in consumption spending over the forecast period.
A spokesman for the Institute said: "While our forecasts envisage positive growth in both GNP and GDP for the first time since 2007, the rates of growth are still slow. For 2011, we see the growth in GNP and GDP being accompanied by continued employment falls as output growth is achieved through productivity growth."
(DW/GK)
The figures from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ERSI) represent a higher outflow than the high levels experienced during the late 1980s, and are based on estimate of continued low employment until 2013.
The ESRI said the highest rate of net outflow in the 1980s occurred in 1989 when the rate reached 44,000.
"Hence, our forecast for an average annual net outflow of 50,000 is high in historic terms, albeit against a larger population base."
Among their other forecasts the ESRI said GDP would grow by 1.5% in real terms in 2011 and by 2.25% in 2012, but these improvements would not be felt in the job market.
Meanwhile, exports are forecast to grow by 6% in 2011 and by 5% in 2012.
Consumption of goods and services is expected to fall by three quarters in 2011 and by a further half a percent in 2012.
According to the ERSI findings, on-going uncertainty with respect to job stability, wages and taxation are likely to act against any rebound in consumption spending over the forecast period.
A spokesman for the Institute said: "While our forecasts envisage positive growth in both GNP and GDP for the first time since 2007, the rates of growth are still slow. For 2011, we see the growth in GNP and GDP being accompanied by continued employment falls as output growth is achieved through productivity growth."
(DW/GK)
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