Fianna Fail Support Failing

Brian Cowen's government has seen its support from the public plummet according to an opinion poll.

According to the survey carried out by the Irish Times and TNS mrbi, Fine Gael has now overtaken the government by a margin of 7%.

A total of 1,000 people were questioned throughout the country in the TNS/MRBI, which took place on Monday and Tuesday about their voting intentions, with Fianna Fáil down 15 points to an unprecedented low of just 27%.

Symbolically too, satisfaction with the Taoiseach has sunk from 21 points to 26%, which is less than his party.

The Tánaiste Mary Coughlan told the Irish Times today that the poll findings were "very disappointing" and said the Government had taken "unpopular" decisions in recent months due to the "seismic change" in the economy.

The significance of the poll is especially poignant when compared to the same survey carried out in February this year, when Bertie Ahern was still Taoiseach.

In February's poll, Damian Loscher Managing Director of TNS mrbi wrote: "Fianna Fail has increased by one percentage point to 34%, despite huge economic uncertainty and waning consumer confidence.

When interviewing for this poll was taking place, equity markets were in turmoil and talk of a property market collapse abounded in the media. Against this background, Fianna Fail may have feared a further drop in support.

It may therefore come as a relief at one level that the party not only sustained but actually gained support.

Of course, there is a ratings floor for Fianna Fail held up by core voters below which support is unlikely to dip, even in extremely unfavourable economic times.

At a similar stage in the last election cycle in 2003, when the economy was stalling, poll performances of between 30% and 32% for Fianna Fail were the norm. At 34% in this latest poll, it could be argued therefore that Fianna Fail are now reasonably close to this floor."

It seems all too clear that with the collapse of the construction sector, the "floor" in Fianna Fail support was that of glass.

Results of the survey: Fianna Fáil, 27% (down 15 points); Fine Gael, 34% (up 11 points); Labour, 14% (down 1 point); Sinn Féin, 8% (no change); Green Party, 4% (down 1 point); and Independents/others, 13% (up 6 points).

(DW)